Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
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- Create Date：2021-04-10 13:55:14
- Update Date：2025-09-06
- Status：finish
- Author：Howard Marks
- ISBN：1473695686
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Summary
Economies， companies and markets operate in accordance with patterns which are influenced by naturally occurring events combined with human psychology and behaviour。 The wisest investors learn to appreciate these rhythms and identify the best opportunities to take actions which will transform their finances for the better。 This insightful， practical guide to understanding and responding to cycles - by a world-leading investor - is your key to unlocking a better and more privileged appreciation of how to make the markets work for you and make your money multiply。
Reviews
Morten Hovland
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 What to do in market cycles？ Recognizing them， familiarities with the past。 Aggressive and defensive investor。 Credit cycle？ Shitty deals， money easily acquired。
Vitalijus Sostak
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I diligently kept reading this book and even got to 74% mark， hoping to find ANY practical frameworks to invest across market cycles。 Found none， wasted many hours。In short: one star。Slightly longer commentary:The book is full of obvious statements watered down to fill hundreds of pages。 "Luckily"， author did not have to write it anew， he simply cites lots of his own monthly commentaries written to clients in past years。 Every angle is broken down into most basic elements， then each basic notion I diligently kept reading this book and even got to 74% mark， hoping to find ANY practical frameworks to invest across market cycles。 Found none， wasted many hours。In short: one star。Slightly longer commentary:The book is full of obvious statements watered down to fill hundreds of pages。 "Luckily"， author did not have to write it anew， he simply cites lots of his own monthly commentaries written to clients in past years。 Every angle is broken down into most basic elements， then each basic notion is being explained to death。In result， the whole insight into cycle is distilled into these not-so-revelationary takeaways:1。 Cycles are natural part of markets， they will always repeat （rhyme）。2。 Cycles take valuations much higher than average/justifiable on the way up， but then put them much lower on the way down。3。 One cannot time the cycle， but by carefully watching valuations and sentiment can adjust one's investments though profiting from cycles is a very long shot anyway。That's basically all the book tries to say， you've read it :）Maybe this book will enlighten very young readers with zero experience， but even then - it's just a collection of self-evident musings。For people that are interested in real-life methods how to actually deal with asset/economy cycles - two recommendations， both old but good:Alexander "Stock cycles: why stocks won't beat money markets over next 20 years" （2000）Hurst "The profit magic of stock transaction timing" （1970） 。。。more
John Lee
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analytical， insightful， experienced（or well-versed in history） and unemotional。
Josef
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This book builds well on the previous book， a random walk down Wall Street by showing the other， active management side of the coin。 Author does well in explaining investor phycology through the market cycles。
Daniel
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Beyond redundant， downright tedious。 The thesis of this book should have been expressed in a white paper or something。。。did not require 260 odd pages。
Monica Peck
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Great read。 Interesting discussion of the impact of market cycles with good examples over time。
Nicolas Marino
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The Marks' trademark all over it。 A clear， concise and comprehensive explanation of cycles written in plain reasonably-easy-to-understand English。 You don't have to be a qualified economist or understand complex macroeconomic data to understand it。 I would only point out that the writing is definitely repetitive and redundant at points but in my specific case， being relatively new to finance， this is something I see as beneficial。 The Marks' trademark all over it。 A clear， concise and comprehensive explanation of cycles written in plain reasonably-easy-to-understand English。 You don't have to be a qualified economist or understand complex macroeconomic data to understand it。 I would only point out that the writing is definitely repetitive and redundant at points but in my specific case， being relatively new to finance， this is something I see as beneficial。 。。。more
Ujval Nanavati
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Howard Marks is a genius。 His writings on investing are simple enough to carry valuable lessons for the beginner but they're also pointed and fundamental enough to carry value for experienced investors。 His 'The Most Important Thing' is a classic - my most annotated， highlighted， flagged， and quoted book of all time。I wasn't expecting much from Mastering the Market Cycle because the core philosophy was known to me and it is something I've been profitably using since years。 Nonetheless， no writte Howard Marks is a genius。 His writings on investing are simple enough to carry valuable lessons for the beginner but they're also pointed and fundamental enough to carry value for experienced investors。 His 'The Most Important Thing' is a classic - my most annotated， highlighted， flagged， and quoted book of all time。I wasn't expecting much from Mastering the Market Cycle because the core philosophy was known to me and it is something I've been profitably using since years。 Nonetheless， no written word of Howard Marks should go unread。The book is great， no doubt。 But it about 2x too long。 There is way too much repetition， quoting from his memos， and passages from The Most Important Thing。 This could've been a long memo and it'd have done the job。 Be that as it may， perhaps the lessons need to be repeated again and again for them to register - because hardly anyone is following something very basic。 Risk cycles， credit cycles， real estate cycles， psychological cycles。。。we just see history rhyming over and over。If there was on line that sums it up， it is this: 'We may not be able to predict where we will be， but it pays to know where we are'。 。。。more
Sebastien Houdry
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Definitely one of the best business books I’ve read during the past years。 Mr。 Marks shares valuable insights accumulated over his lifelong exposure to financial markets and its experience of several financial crises。 This book does an amazing job of explaining how all cycles （capital markets， real estate， credit， etc。） are interlinked and impact one another。 Most importantly， it stresses out the importance of investors psychology in creating and inflating cycles， notably during market bubbles o Definitely one of the best business books I’ve read during the past years。 Mr。 Marks shares valuable insights accumulated over his lifelong exposure to financial markets and its experience of several financial crises。 This book does an amazing job of explaining how all cycles （capital markets， real estate， credit， etc。） are interlinked and impact one another。 Most importantly， it stresses out the importance of investors psychology in creating and inflating cycles， notably during market bubbles or crashes。This helps you get a good understanding of the 2008 GFC ， and hopefully - that’s the book’s objective anyway - will help you understand where you’re standing now in the market cycle。The book is well-written， trying too avoid too technical jargon so I’d say it’s addressed to a rather large public。 I would recommend it to anyone who’s interested in investing in the stock market， professionally or personally。 。。。more
Suleman
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This book is a must read 。 Easy to understand ， not technical and very insightful 。 There is some repetition but only to solidify the main idea which is that markets will continue to cycle and if u ever think that will ever change then u are absolutely wrong ！ Knowing where u are in the cycle is the key to leveraging opportunities that will happen only 4-5 Times in ur life span 。 Otherwise u are just better off staying in the market for ever and not bothering with watching it。
Edward Kuruliouk
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I like Howard Marks， this book is rather simplistic while written in a sophisticated prose。 Marks discusses a range of cycles within traditional financial markets and their impact on the greater economic cycle。 I dislike the memo-riddled structure of the chapters - constantly referring to previously published memos and articles by the author to address his thesis - but I see the value in it。I don't want to get too deep into the weeds with this review and I feel like my three sentences above succ I like Howard Marks， this book is rather simplistic while written in a sophisticated prose。 Marks discusses a range of cycles within traditional financial markets and their impact on the greater economic cycle。 I dislike the memo-riddled structure of the chapters - constantly referring to previously published memos and articles by the author to address his thesis - but I see the value in it。I don't want to get too deep into the weeds with this review and I feel like my three sentences above succinctly embody my views on the book。 I would recommend this book to anyone interesting in market cycles。 。。。more
Bill Webber
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The final chapter has all the info that is needed。。。the rest of the book embellishes with concrete examples of the principles。。。very key principles I might add！
Tin Mayer
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 A great book about cycles。 Not only cycles in the economy， or in investment， but cycles in general。 We are always trying to build stuff that performs in predictable fashion and we always forget that we do not behave in a predictable fashion。 Humans and human emotions are what contributes the most to the financial cycles， the bull and bear markets。 I would recommend this book mainly to professional investors。 If you want to have the slightest chance of “beating the market” you need to know all th A great book about cycles。 Not only cycles in the economy， or in investment， but cycles in general。 We are always trying to build stuff that performs in predictable fashion and we always forget that we do not behave in a predictable fashion。 Humans and human emotions are what contributes the most to the financial cycles， the bull and bear markets。 I would recommend this book mainly to professional investors。 If you want to have the slightest chance of “beating the market” you need to know all this。 But I would also recommend this book to people interested in improving their personal finances。 You also need to learn these things。 What I took from this book is the conviction that cycles will always exist。 You cannot control them but you can prepare for them and hopefully try to profit from them。 。。。more
Milind Pawar
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Premise is simple - Financial markets are cyclical， always have been and always will be。 The author compares them to a pendulum！Investor's ability to generate superior returns does not depend on predicting the future， but understanding the present better than the most。 The author suggests two criteria for this - - Identifying the intrinsic value of underlying assets （Quantitative）- Understanding the investor psychology （Qualitative）This book double clicks on one of the chapters from the author's Premise is simple - Financial markets are cyclical， always have been and always will be。 The author compares them to a pendulum！Investor's ability to generate superior returns does not depend on predicting the future， but understanding the present better than the most。 The author suggests two criteria for this - - Identifying the intrinsic value of underlying assets （Quantitative）- Understanding the investor psychology （Qualitative）This book double clicks on one of the chapters from the author's 1st book - The Most Important Thing （2011） but gets repetitive at times while explaining complex concepts。 。。。more
Matthew Svenstrup
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Very repetitive。
Josh Loschen
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I was pretty underwhelmed by this book。 So much of it comes down to the concept that there is a business cycle and the best time to buy invest is not at the top of the cycle。 That pretty much sums up the majority of this book's content。 That idea gets restated dozens of different ways but it's all the same basic idea。 I was pretty underwhelmed by this book。 So much of it comes down to the concept that there is a business cycle and the best time to buy invest is not at the top of the cycle。 That pretty much sums up the majority of this book's content。 That idea gets restated dozens of different ways but it's all the same basic idea。 。。。more
Zeqiong Huang
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The idea is pretty clear， and insightful。 Pendulum like market swings。 However， it is not clear， if the book gives a framework to identify where the cycle is。 And it is still not clear why the market always overreacts but not stabilize at the equilibrium。 I guess that's where more rigorous research can add value。 The idea is pretty clear， and insightful。 Pendulum like market swings。 However， it is not clear， if the book gives a framework to identify where the cycle is。 And it is still not clear why the market always overreacts but not stabilize at the equilibrium。 I guess that's where more rigorous research can add value。 。。。more
Juan David Vargas Quiceno
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El mundo de las inversiones no está tan alejado de la vida común de muchas personas。 Solemos confundir al inversionsta con un señor de corbata que hace cosas muy complicadas， es millonario， y tiene una vida muy agitada。Este libro， aparte de tratar el tema de los ciclos del mercado （que es un poco avanzado）， presenta de manera MUY sencilla muchos conceptos de inversiones para borrar esos pre-conceptos que en general son muy erróneos。Lo que más rescato del libro es que los concejos/conceptos que s El mundo de las inversiones no está tan alejado de la vida común de muchas personas。 Solemos confundir al inversionsta con un señor de corbata que hace cosas muy complicadas， es millonario， y tiene una vida muy agitada。Este libro， aparte de tratar el tema de los ciclos del mercado （que es un poco avanzado）， presenta de manera MUY sencilla muchos conceptos de inversiones para borrar esos pre-conceptos que en general son muy erróneos。Lo que más rescato del libro es que los concejos/conceptos que se presentan pueden aplicarse a distintos ámbitos de la vida real， el mercado puede ser la vida misma y muchas decisiones importantes que tomamos caen en errores típicos que solo notamos cuando ya es muy tarde。1。 Cuántas personas estudian la profesión equivocada solo porque es "la carrera del momento"？2。 Cuantas veces caminamos junto al rebaño sin pensar en un segundo porque lo estamos haciendo？3。 Cuántas oportunidades se nos escapan en la vida por no pensar un segundo y ver el panorama completo？ 。。。more
Sangam Agarwal
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like his first book you can read it like summary of many great book to learn lot more in very short time
David Han
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Simple and easy to digest bookMain takeaways:1。 There will always be cycles of excessive optimism followed by excessive pessimism2。 Take care to be aware of your own individual shortcomings and control your emotions when investing3。 Be wary when everyone is bullish and decisive when everyone is bearish
Ian Wagner
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Solid book on investing。 If I had to make one criticism， it'd be that it's a bit basic/folksy （not in a bad way; he has really good "common sense" insights that are worth repeating） and repetitive。 If you've read "The Most Important Thing，" then some of this will be familiar， but it's still worth reading/listening to。 I found Chapter 11 in particular to be worth the read for the take on real estate， which is probably one of the most misunderstood asset classes in the popular consciousness。 Solid book on investing。 If I had to make one criticism， it'd be that it's a bit basic/folksy （not in a bad way; he has really good "common sense" insights that are worth repeating） and repetitive。 If you've read "The Most Important Thing，" then some of this will be familiar， but it's still worth reading/listening to。 I found Chapter 11 in particular to be worth the read for the take on real estate， which is probably one of the most misunderstood asset classes in the popular consciousness。 。。。more
Von_feng
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虽然啰嗦且不及上一本书《投资最重要的事》，但还是值得一读。周期一直都在，要警惕那些说“这次不一样”的态度；理解周期，定位周期，评估周期将来的趋势，做好组合布局；每一步都需要谨慎细致的观察和分析，需要做大量的投资功课。马克斯强调了周期的重要性，但是功课还是要自己做的。
Otis Chandler
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Very interesting book to read during a downcycle。 First few chapters give you the bulk of his points， gets a little repetitive at the end。
A。K。 Vyas
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One of two investment books that should be required reading。
Justin Lee
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1。知道週期的特性：階段性、動能，自我修正。2。評估週期的階段：觀察投資人的心理變化，確認我們在的位置。3。應對週期的技巧：切換成『積極』或者『防禦』的模式。
Sailesh Mulleti
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for investment success the following 2 principles hold good:t• Cycle positioning is a process of deciding on the risk posture of your portfolio in response to your judgements regarding the principle cycles - choosing between aggressiveness and defensiveness， increasing and decreasing exposure to market movementst• Asset positioning is the process of deciding which markets， market niches and specific securities or assets to overweight and underweight
Mathew King
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The most elegantly written book about buying the dip
Ulf Sthamer
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History doesn't repeat itself - But this book does！ This book could have been an excellent essay， but you won't learn much more in its form as a book。 It's also not fun to read it。 The author knows what he is talking about - therefore I give it 2 stars。 There is no bad advise in it， but it fails in being clearly structured， being practical or conveying the most important things in a rememberable way。 Such an interesting topic， but apart from the chapter about the credit cycle the author doesn't History doesn't repeat itself - But this book does！ This book could have been an excellent essay， but you won't learn much more in its form as a book。 It's also not fun to read it。 The author knows what he is talking about - therefore I give it 2 stars。 There is no bad advise in it， but it fails in being clearly structured， being practical or conveying the most important things in a rememberable way。 Such an interesting topic， but apart from the chapter about the credit cycle the author doesn't go into new territory。 If you unfortunately bought it already - just read the last chapter and skip the rest， it's like a summary。I have probably learned more about finance in the short conversation I once had with the other Howard Marks （alias Mr。 Nice）。 。。。more
Jason Q
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Okay， someone gets Howard an editor please。。。It's remarkable how I agree with almost every points in the book yet it's such a rough read。 Howard literally repeated himself a handful of times in this book， almost word by word on multiple occasions。 It really felt like a first draft （and it very well could be published without an editor， IDK）。 Either way， not a whole lot of new material in this book and it honestly felt like a summer intern just copy and paste a bunch of stuff from Howard's past m Okay， someone gets Howard an editor please。。。It's remarkable how I agree with almost every points in the book yet it's such a rough read。 Howard literally repeated himself a handful of times in this book， almost word by word on multiple occasions。 It really felt like a first draft （and it very well could be published without an editor， IDK）。 Either way， not a whole lot of new material in this book and it honestly felt like a summer intern just copy and paste a bunch of stuff from Howard's past memos and published it。。。 Really disappointed since I had high hopes。 Probably would give it a 2。5 if that's an option。。。 。。。more
Karan
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